Approximate Value is a statistical attempt to measure and compare the relative quality of NFL player performance on the field. In any given player-to-player situation, AV may not hold up to scrutiny, but when used to evaluate large groups of players, statisticians and fans should find a high level of reliability in the numbers. The simple concept is that higher AV means better player performance, and, of course, lower AV means weaker player performance.
Somebody sat down one day with an abacus, a pencil and a ruler and did some work. Remember how we were told that Approximate Value may not work for player-versus-player comps, but it was really good when you applied it to large groups? Well, 5, players over 20 years is the kind of group where the Approximate Value measurement should shine.
The guy with the abacus took his pencil and ruler and a piece of graph paper, and he put together a chart. Where I grew up, we used to call that strong correlation. This chart shows us exactly what we should expect to find — that across this large sample of players, the earliest draft picks have the highest Approximate Value, and the Approximate Value of players falls as we move through the draft and reach the later picks. You can still look at the dots on the chart and find players taken with the th pick who have higher AV than players taken picks earlier, but the data is clustered pretty tightly around the red line, with minimal outliers.
The fivethirtyeight. The research suggests that the reason why no individual or organization consistently outperforms the others in the draft is that they are all skilled, all apply rigorous discipline to the process, and all have good access to information. There is a mismatch, according to the article, between the actual skill of the NFL personnel executives and how skilled they think they are at picking winners at the top of the draft.
NFL personnel executives think that, if they have a top pick, then they can outperform the market and grab a more talented player. Further, the closer that pick is to 1 in the draft, the higher the confidence level of the personnel executives. This leads to a mis-match between measurable results and perceived value of early draft picks.
NFL personnel executives, according to the article, overvalue the top 50 picks in the draft because they feel that the closer they are to 1, the better chance they have of hitting a home run. They are right about the relationship — top draft picks perform better — but they misjudge the degree of difference and, thus, the value of those picks. How do we know this? As Massey and Thaler point out, the more that teams study players and gather information about them, the more assured they become in their ability to differentiate among prospects of roughly the same talent level.
What you can see is that, at around pick 50, and again around pick , the two charts agree on the relative value of the picks. Dolphins, from No. The Dolphins first ended up three spots lower, with the 49ers picking in their old spot at No. But the Dolphins still can use either their extra pick from the Texans or their own later pick to manipulate the board further. Miami can still have its pick at wide receiver at No. Or, the team can enjoy the best player available at No.
The Panthers have freed themselves from going after a QB with the Sam Darnold trade, leaving several possibilites in the top Staying put, wide receiver, offensive tackle, Pitts or a cornerback can be very helpful. But they also should realize they pick a spot ahead of the Broncos, the team set for now to take the fifth and final first-round caliber QB.
Depending on where Lance goes and the Bengals, Dophins or Lions not trading down with a QB-needy team ahead of them, the Panthers can be positioned to maximize return. Really, it's not only a QB. Pitts, the remaining top-two tackle Oregon's Penei Sewell or Northwestern's Rashawn Slater and the presumed third wide receiver Alabama Jaylen Waddle all could cause any number of teams to go hard after No. The Cowboys are starting to warm up to taking Pitts instead of addressing their pressing defensive need and taking the best cornerback available, either Virginia Tech's Caleb Farley or Alabama's Patrick Surtain II.
But should both corners be off the board, Dallas would be smarter to trade out of its pick vs. It's more of a no-brainer for Jerry Jones to trade down should Farley, Surtain and Pitts all get selected in the top nine. Under Jones, the Cowboys tend to let the draft come to them, much like jumping on falling wide receiver CeeDee Lamb last year. Dallas picks next at No. But that's not been in their DNA with Bill Belichick as they have much more often been shrewd trade-down partners.
If the five QBs are long gone, New England won't be locking into one prospect as many could define "best player available" for the team. Someone is bound to fall unexpectedly who will have great value to another team.
The Patriots got the Chargers to trade up for Oklahoma linebacker Kenneth Murray last year, and a either a coveted edge rusher for a particular scheme or Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons can cause a simliar proactive reaction from another team. The Patriots have 10 picks but only three in the first rounds, so they should think about strengthening capital via quality over quantity. The Broncos' clear-cut path to a top-five QB also clarifies what other teams need to do to become obstacles toward that, jumping somewhere between No.
There's also the chance the 49ers take Jones and the Falcons pass on Lance, and the Broncos may not want to settle for who's left between Lance and Fields. It seems like every rookie is like a lottery ticket, either priceless or worthless. The more players their favorite team drafts, they think, greater the odds one of them turns out to be valuable.
Every fan loves to hear their team's a draft day winner. The NFL Draft is the only competition between February and September; you want your team in the "Winners" section of the inevitable post-draft columns. The surest way for teams to get great grades from the draftniks is to "fill" as many "holes" as possible; the more picks they have to do that with, the better. Fans love when their team trades on draft day, because 1 it means a guaranteed few minutes of attention, and 2 it show their team has an active strategy, and isn't just sitting around waiting for other teams to steal all their best targets.
Trading is another chance for a fan's team to "beat" somebody, too. One team will be hailed as the victor of the trade, and the team with the higher pick has leverage to extract a premium from the other team.
But fans' real love of trading down has nothing to do with pride, victory or winning. Fans don't like risk. Fans don't want their team to be like the Mike Ditka -led New Orleans Saints , who traded their entire draft, plus their first- and third-round picks, for Ricky Williams.
They want their team to be like the Washington Redskins , who received that mighty haul of value for the their No. They don't want their franchise pinned on one player—one player who might not work out.
But the Redskins didn't stand pat with the Saints' crop of picks. They packaged much of what they got in the trade to move back up to the No. The Redskins' draft class ultimately consisted of one pick each in the first, second, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh rounds; one pick less than they were originally allocated.
Why didn't the Redskins hold on to all the Saints' mid-round picks? Because high picks have much more value. That is to say, they're worth much more. There are many variations on former Dallas Cowboys head coach Jimmy Johnson's Trade Value Chart , but they all reveal something important: draft picks get exponentially more valuable the closer you get to the top.
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